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Alternative Thinking

Can Machines Time Markets? The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

May 6, 2024 - Portfolio Solutions Group

Common wisdom has suggested that small, simple models are best suited for market timing applications, given finance’s “small data” constraint and naturally low predictability. However, we show that complex models better identify true nonlinear relationships and therefore produce better market timing strategy performance. We validate this "virtue of complexity" result in three practical market timing applications.

Working Paper

Levering Up to Do Good: Direct Long-Short Investing and Charitable Giving

April 23, 2024 - Stanley Krasner Joseph Liberman Nathan Sosner Sydney Filler

We use historical strategy simulations to evaluate the advantages of donating appreciated stock in the context of tax-aware long-short factor strategies. We find long-short strategies exhibit several advantages over long-only investments.