Driving with the Rear-View Mirror

U.S. equities enjoyed a banner past decade. To analyze what assumptions investors need to have about the next ten years to expect a repeat performance, we decompose U.S. equity market excess-of-cash returns into four components – dividend yield, real earnings growth, multiple expansion, and the real return on cash.

Alternative Investing

Is Your Equity Hedge Fund Portfolio Resilient Enough for Uncertain Times?

We analyze the historical macroeconomic sensitivity of traditional asset classes and major hedge fund strategies. We show that the average hedge fund is unlikely to provide meaningful diversification during periods of macro uncertainty, which are also typically difficult for traditional assets. However, long/short low-risk strategies have tended to exhibit low macro sensitivity.

Tax Aware

The Enduring Appeal of Gain Deferral, Part 2

Our previous post showed the power of deferral for building wealth, but one key assumption in that analysis was that tax rates remain constant. In this post, we discuss whether gain deferral is still a good idea if you think tax rates might be higher in the future.

Tax Aware

The Enduring Appeal of Gain Deferral, Part 1

We find that strategies that help defer gains can be highly beneficial, irrespective of the investment horizon and especially over the long term.


A Fresh Look at Multi-Strategy Alternatives

In this short piece, we review the case for multi-strategy alternatives, explaining why liquid, diversifying alternative strategies may have a decisive role to play in the tougher investment environment ahead.

Asset Allocation

2024 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.

Tax Aware

Inflation and Tax Efficiency

We discuss how inflation and taxes are linked, highlighting the value of tax efficiency when inflation is a feature of the macroeconomic environment.

Key Design Choices in Long/Short Equity

Investors are looking for resilient sources of return in the face of mounting headwinds for equity markets. Long/short and market-neutral equity strategies deserve consideration. We review the case for allocating to long/short equity and address several key choices faced by investors and by managers.

Machine Learning

How Global is Predictability?

We show that asset pricing has a strong global component in the sense that a common global model has stronger predictability of stock returns than local models estimated in each country – even when the global model is estimated without the use of local data. Nevertheless, asset pricing has a small local component – in order to detect it, we develop a refined transfer learning model that gains power and precision by building off the global component.

Tax Aware

Looking Under the Hood of Long/Short Tax-Aware Strategies

Our recent paper discusses gain deferral and the benefits of tax-aware long/short equity factor strategies. It also suggests that when it comes to a diversified long/short equity factor strategy, the difference between a portfolio that cares about taxes and one that doesn’t may be smaller than you think.