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Macro Wrap-Up

Cut It Out

What is the greatest trick the Fed ever pulled? Convincing the world it doesn’t matter to markets for the next few months. This week we look at how the Fed tried to take some of the attention away from monetary policy at the last meeting.

Perspective

It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin

Cliff discusses how to measure whether a factor, in this case the value factor, is itself rich or cheap versus history. The answer, regardless of the approach taken in measuring cheapness, is that value is currently quite cheap compared to history.

Macro Wrap-Up

Don’t Stop Be-Leaving

Brexit has gone on for so long that most people have moved beyond Brexit fatigue, and we've reached Brexit fatigue fatigue. Does that mean it's interesting again? We think so because it's moving markets and is the topic of the Wrap-Up this week.

Data Set

AQR Momentum Indices, Monthly

We have developed methodologies for U.S. and international markets that capture momentum in an intuitive and transparent way. The methodology can be applied to any universe of stocks. We have included monthly data for our three momentum indices here.

Macro Wrap-Up

Bridging the Earnings GAAP

This week we return from the North to look at the gap between GAAP and NIPA earnings, in particular why earnings growth on national accounts has been so slow. We try methodically to nip the controversy in the bud, but the answer may be more elusive than you might expect. We find that, while the significance of the divergence may have been exaggerated, it is still sobering for investors.

Macro Wrap-Up

Oh, Canada

What if a housing bubble burst and no crisis showed up? Canada may be in the process of finding that out.

Working Paper

Lot Layering: The New Frontier for Hedge Fund Partnership Allocations

Despite its unavoidable deficiency caused by current regulations, we believe that lot layering aligns tax and economics more closely than any of the “aggregation” methods presently used by most hedge funds.

Working Paper

Responsible Investing: The ESG-Efficient Frontier

Combining several large data sets, we compute the empirical ESG-efficient frontier and show the costs and benefits of responsible investing.

Macro Wrap-Up

Taking Exception to Manufacturing

Everyone loves a good PMI. It’s the bad ones that can make stocks go down. This week we look at why a recent disappointing manufacturing number may have shattered investor belief in American exceptionalism (in the economy).

Macro Wrap-Up

Notes from the Underground Trading Desk

In this week’s Wrap-Up, we cover the turmoil in the repo markets. We explain what repos are, why they are dislocated, and what this means for other markets. While it may not be time to worry yet, we consider developments in money markets that might tell us it’s time to be more cautious.