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Working Paper

When Fortune Doesn’t Favor the Bold: Perils of Volatility for Wealth Growth and Preservation

Entrepreneurs and executives holding much of their wealth in a highly appreciated single stock face either the high risk of idiosyncratic volatility and potentially catastrophic losses, or selling stock and facing an immediate, punitive tax burden. This paper evaluates this choice and explains how it relates to classic betting strategies and economic theory, finding tax-efficient techniques might strike the balance between the urgency to diversify concentrated risk and aversion to taxes.

Perspective

Still Crazy After All This YTD

Over these additional three months, value’s returns, as we measure them, have continued apace. Since February, the value spread has fallen slightly, though it remains near its tech bubble peak, at around a 95th percentile. Reminder — a massive valuation dislocation says very little about the timing of when it falls back to earth. But it’s nice to see it start and still leave the spread incredibly high.

White Paper

Supply Chain Climate Exposure

To manage climate risks, investors need reliable climate exposure metrics, but such risks may be difficult to measure, particularly along the supply chain. Using broadly accessible data, we propose an intuitive metric that quantifies the exposure a company has to customers and suppliers. Our metric is related to scope 3 emissions and captures the strength of economic linkages as well as the overall climate exposure of a firm’s customers and suppliers.

Data Set

How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence, Factor Data Monthly

This is the updated data set related to the paper “How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence,” in which we examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes.

Data Set

Time Series Momentum: Factors, Monthly

We have updated and extended our data set for “Time Series Momentum" (Moskowitz, Ooi and Pedersen, 2012), in which we document an asset-pricing anomaly that is consistent across different asset classes and markets. We update the returns monthly.

Data Set

AQR Momentum Indices, Monthly

We have developed methodologies for U.S. and international markets that capture momentum in an intuitive and transparent way. The methodology can be applied to any universe of stocks. We have included monthly data for our three momentum indices here.

White Paper

Building a Better Commodities Portfolio

Interest in commodities is rising again, thanks to their tendency to be particularly strong diversifiers during periods of rising or volatile inflation. We review what a “best-in-class” commodity portfolio looks like by exploring three potential enhancements to a passive approach to the asset class.

Perspective

Everything and More

My colleague and former classmate Antti Ilmanen is at it again with his second book, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns. Very rarely does a sequel stand up to the original (see Jaws II), but that's certainly not the case here!

News

AQR Principal Antti Ilmanen Authors New Book on Investing in a Low-Return Environment

AQR Principal Antti Ilmanen’s book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least, addresses the challenges facing investors amid the prospect of record-low future expected returns. 

Data Set

Commodities for the Long Run: Index Level Data, Monthly

We have updated the data set for the paper “Commodities for the Long Run”, in which we analyze a novel data set of commodity futures prices going back to 1877, allowing us to show that returns of commodity futures indices have, on average, been positive over the long run. We update the data monthly.