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Alternative Thinking

The Illusion of Active Fixed Income Diversification

We examine popular active fixed income categories and find that a persistent overweight to high yield credit explains the majority of fixed-income managers’ active returns. We then discuss some key implications for asset owners.

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.

Alternative Thinking

Bad Habits and Good Practices

Good investing requires good investments and good investors. We discuss the latter and address bad habits that can affect long-term performance.

Alternative Thinking

Style Premia / Bond Returns

We review how style premia have historically generated attractive long-run returns in virtually every place we have studied them, and may help reduce risk through better diversification. We then look at fixed income returns in different environments

Alternative Thinking

Style Investing in Fixed Income

Systematic investing is often applied in equity markets but less so in fixed income. Here, we show that classic-style premia—typically applied in stock selection and equity country allocation—could have also work in fixed income markets.

Alternative Thinking

2016 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets, and investigate expected returns for credits and commodities.

Alternative Thinking

Systematic vs. Discretionary

Systematic and fundamental investing approaches are not opposites. Both pursue the same objective and can be fundamentally-oriented. They can use similar inputs, but in different ways, to try to improve investment performance. Neither is necessarily better than the other.

White Paper

Tactical Tilts and Foregone Diversification

Investors tend to forget that tactical timing may incur a penalty: forgone diversification. We discuss that hurdle here, as well as the situations in which we would consider employing tactical timing.