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Journal Article

Investing in Interesting Times

January 31, 2023 - Antti Ilmanen

Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.

Journal Article

A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation

Q1 2023 - Alfie Brixton Jordan Brooks Peter Hecht Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney Nicholas McQuinn

For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation – a fundamental detriment of risk in traditional portfolios – has been consistently negative. However, this hasn’t always been the case, and a positive stock/bond correlation could reappear due to macroeconomic changes. In this article, we assess the broad implications this would have for investors and set out practical steps to prepare for such an outcome.

In the Press

May 6, 2022 - Antti Ilmanen

See where “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns” has been featured in the press.

Journal Article

Tail Risk Hedging: Contrasting Put and Trend Strategies

July 8, 2020 - Antti Ilmanen Ashwin Thapar Harsha Tummala Daniel Villalon

The sharp market fall and speedy recovery during the eventful first half of 2020 has kept tail risk hedging topical: investors have both fresh memories of a painful loss and renewed fears of a repeat. We try to offer a balanced overview of the strengths and weaknesses of direct and indirect tail hedging strategies.

Journal Article

Fact and Fiction About Low-Risk Investing

February 17, 2020 - Ron Alquist Andrea Frazzini Antti Ilmanen Lasse H. Pedersen

Low-risk investing has received a lot of attention over the past decade. An intensive academic debate has spurred, and been spurred by, the growing market for low-risk strategies. This article presents five fact and dispels five fictions about low-risk investing.

Journal Article

How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence

July 2, 2019 - Antti Ilmanen Rachel Lee Tobias J. Moskowitz Ashwin Thapar

We examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes. The results offer support for time-varying risk premia models with important implications for theory seeking to explain the sources of factor returns.

White Paper

Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Real Estate

January 31, 2019 - Antti Ilmanen Swati Chandra Nicholas McQuinn

We try to demystify the risk and return of private real estate, considering theoretical arguments, historical average returns, and forward-looking yield-based analysis.

Journal Article

Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Equity

January 31, 2019 - Antti Ilmanen Swati Chandra Nicholas McQuinn

We lay out a framework for expected returns for private equity that is based on a discounted cashflow framework similar to what we use for public stocks and bonds.

Interview

Words From the Wise: An AQR Interview with Ed Thorp

January 10, 2018 - Antti Ilmanen Rodney N. Sullivan Ed Thorp

We sat down with Ed Thorp, a pioneer in the mathematical analysis of casino games and investing, to get his insights on an array of topics from casino gambling to quantitative investing.

Interview

Words From the Wise: Robert Engle on Portfolio Management

October 2, 2017 - Antti Ilmanen Lasse H. Pedersen Rodney N. Sullivan

This issue of "Words from the Wise" features an interview with Robert Engle, Nobel prize winner and father of risk modeling. Engle discusses his breakthrough research on analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility.