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Journal Article
International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years
May 3, 2023
International diversification has hurt US-based investors for over 30 years, but the long-run case for it remains relevant. We show that both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification, buttressed by empirical supportive evidence. Additionally we show it would be dangerous to extrapolate the post-1990 outperformance of US equities.
Journal Article
Investing in Interesting Times
January 31, 2023
Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.
Journal Article
A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation
Q1 2023
For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation – a fundamental detriment of risk in traditional portfolios – has been consistently negative. However, this hasn’t always been the case, and a positive stock/bond correlation could reappear due to macroeconomic changes. In this article, we assess the broad implications this would have for investors and set out practical steps to prepare for such an outcome.
In the Press
May 6, 2022
See where “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns” has been featured in the press.
Journal Article
Tail Risk Hedging: Contrasting Put and Trend Strategies
July 8, 2020
The sharp market fall and speedy recovery during the eventful first half of 2020 has kept tail risk hedging topical: investors have both fresh memories of a painful loss and renewed fears of a repeat. We try to offer a balanced overview of the strengths and weaknesses of direct and indirect tail hedging strategies.
Journal Article
Fact and Fiction About Low-Risk Investing
February 17, 2020
Low-risk investing has received a lot of attention over the past decade. An intensive academic debate has spurred, and been spurred by, the growing market for low-risk strategies. This article presents five fact and dispels five fictions about low-risk investing.
Journal Article
How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence
July 2, 2019
We examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes. The results offer support for time-varying risk premia models with important implications for theory seeking to explain the sources of factor returns.
White Paper
Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Real Estate
January 31, 2019
We try to demystify the risk and return of private real estate, considering theoretical arguments, historical average returns, and forward-looking yield-based analysis.
Journal Article
Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Equity
January 31, 2019
We lay out a framework for expected returns for private equity that is based on a discounted cashflow framework similar to what we use for public stocks and bonds.
Interview
Words From the Wise: An AQR Interview with Ed Thorp
January 10, 2018
We sat down with Ed Thorp, a pioneer in the mathematical analysis of casino games and investing, to get his insights on an array of topics from casino gambling to quantitative investing.