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Alternative Thinking

Honey, the Fed Shrunk the Equity Premium

What are the implications of higher interest rates for asset allocation? This article reviews historical patterns and forward-looking expected returns for a range of asset classes, and highlights the role of “cash-plus” liquid alternatives — overlooked beneficiaries of higher cash rates. We show that in a higher-rate world that investors haven’t seen for many years, diversification away from equities may prove to be especially valuable.

Alternative Thinking

Key Design Choices When Building a Risk-Mitigating Portfolio

After 2022 showed the downside of traditional portfolios’ reliance on equity risk, many investors have recently begun to reconsider the role of risk-mitigating portfolios within their broader asset allocations. We show why we believe trend following deserves a prominent place in any serious risk-mitigation portfolio.

Quick Takes

Emerging Equities

 

Hear our quick take on emerging equities, where we’ll cover why – and why now – investors should consider re-visiting their allocations to this asset class.

Quick Takes

Trend Following in Alternative Markets

 

What is alternative trend following? We summarize what a trend following approach is, how it can be applied to alternative markets, and why alternative trend following approaches have historically outperformed during difficult periods for traditional asset classes.

Quick Takes

Top Three Investment Ideas to Consider for 2023

 

Watch a Quick Take on our Portfolio Solutions Group’s top three investment ideas for 2023. 

Alternative Thinking

2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.

Alternative Thinking

Should Your Portfolio Protection Work Fast or Slow?

2022’s drawdown provides a clear picture for the types of strategies that can actually deliver in a “slow burn” market downturn. While some options-based strategies have generated positive returns, in many cases they have disappointed. In contrast, trend following strategies have generally posted very strong returns. Looking ahead, many of the macro conditions that have been advantageous to trend following are still in place—and have historically tended to persist.

Alternative Thinking

New Rules of Diversification

During the first half of 2022, equity markets tumbled around 20% from their peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large. More worryingly, this type of downturn may be unfamiliar to many younger investors: with inflation still high, there is little prospect of central banks riding to the market’s rescue. We assess the prospects for stock and bond markets after the H1 selloff, consider the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and explore the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.

Quick Takes

Quick Clips: The Stock/Bond Correlation

For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation (SBC) has been consistently negative, and investors have been able to rely on their bond investments for portfolio protection when equities sell off. However, macroeconomic changes – like heightened inflation risk – could push this key asset allocation input into positive territory.

Are Value Stocks Cheap for a Fundamental Reason?

The value spread remains unusually high, which has led investors to be concerned that value may be cheap for a reason. In this short presentation, our Portfolio Solutions Group (PSG) explains how we evaluate this spread and illustrates our view that the current high value spread is forecasting higher expected returns, and not low fundamental growth rates.