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Working Paper

Do Short Sale Transactions Precede Bad News Events?

It's argued that short sellers are a sophisticated subset of investors given the relative costs of short selling, and prior research suggests that short sellers are, on average, able to predict lower future performance. We test these assertions here.

Working Paper

External Financing and Future Stock Returns

We provide an analysis of the relationship between external financing transactions—equity offerings, debt offerings and bank borrowings—and future stock returns. Our results provide new insights, by accounting for omitted variables in prior research.

Working Paper

An Accounting-Based Characteristic Model for Asset Pricing

Prior research documents robust correlations between firm characteristics and future stock returns, but provides little insight on why. Our firm characteristic model provides a structure to interpret these observed correlations.

Working Paper

Accruals and Short Selling: An Opportunity Foregone

Short sellers have strong incentive to use accrual information as they seek to profit from expected lower future performance of high-accrual firms. But we find that short sellers do not use the content of current accruals to choose which stocks to short.

Working Paper

Tracking Analysts Forecasts Over the Annual Earnings Horizon

Looking at analysts' earnings forecasts in the 12 months leading up to the annual earnings announcement, we find evidence that analysts allow firms to guide their forecasts and thus provide a more “beatable” forecast.

Journal Article

The Relation Between Corporate Financing Activities, Analysts’ Forecasts and Stock Returns

This paper looks at the negative relation between external financing activities and future stock returns.

Journal Article

Credit Markets and Financial Information

Lakshmanan Shivakumar, Oktay Urcan, Florin P.

Journal Article

Accounting Anomalies and Fundamental Analysis

In this paper, we survey research in accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis, using the forecasting of future earnings and returns as our organizing framework.

Journal Article

Accrual Reliability, Earnings Persistence and Stock Prices

We formally model the implications of reliability for earnings persistence, with our model predicting that less reliable accruals result in lower earnings persistence.

Journal Article

What Makes Stock Prices Move? Fundamentals vs. Investor Recognition

Behavioral finance research documents that investors are more likely to hold “attention grabbing” stocks —those of firms that currently have popular products and services, such as Apple and Pandora.