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Alternative Thinking

2017 Capital Market Assumptions For Major Asset Classes

We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets. Compared with historical averages of value metrics, we beloieve we are in a low expected return environment.

White Paper

Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Real Estate

We try to demystify the risk and return of private real estate, considering theoretical arguments, historical average returns, and forward-looking yield-based analysis.

White Paper

Understanding the Tax Efficiency of Market Neutral Equity Strategies

Tax-aware equity market neutral strategies can be inherently tax efficient. We explain why and illustrate our thinking through historical strategy simulations, as well as explore potential practical applications.

Journal Article

Contrarian Factor Timing is Deceptively Difficult

The increasing popularity of factor investing has led to valuation concerns among some contrarian-minded investors and fears of imminent mean-reversion and underperformance.

White Paper

Are Defensive Stocks Expensive? A Closer Look at Value Spreads

Investors have been concerned about the rich valuation of defensive stocks and how that may crimp returns. Using value spreads, we analyze the relative prices of defensive stocks and discuss the difficulties in predicting style returns.

White Paper

Understanding the Tax Efficiency of Relaxed-Constraint Equity Strategies

A guide to tax-aware relaxed constraint strategies that also tries to enlighten investors on the nuances around tax benefits by comparing different tax-aware strategies with an equity beta of one.

White Paper

Demystifying Illiquid Assets: Expected Returns for Private Equity

We lay out a framework for expected returns for private equity that is based on a discounted cashflow framework similar to what we use for public stocks and bonds.