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White Paper

Diversifying Alternatives and the Rearview Mirror

November 3, 2025 - Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney

Part 10: This paper examines how investor biases and performance-chasing behaviors can undermine the benefits of long/short diversifying alternatives. We explore why such strategies often feel disappointing in bull markets, yet remain vital for long-term portfolio resilience.

White Paper

Bond Market Focus: Understanding Treasury Yields with Survey Data

September 17, 2025 - Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney

Part 8: This paper explores how survey data can decompose U.S. Treasury yields into inflation expectations, real rate expectations, and required bond risk premia. The analysis highlights how these components have evolved since the 1980s and the risks posed by today’s policy challenges to anchored inflation expectations.

White Paper

Equity Market Focus: Objective Expected Returns

July 31, 2025 - Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney

Part 6: This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of using valuation-based metrics like CAPE and CAEY to estimate long-run equity market returns. While these models remain the most robust objective tools available, their predictive power is nuanced and often overstated.

White Paper

Diversifiers Forever

July 31, 2025 - Thomas Maloney Josh Stone

In a portfolio whose investment horizon is forever, do diversifying investments add any value? In this short paper, we illustrate the surprising power of diversification for ultra-long-term investors.

White Paper

How Did We Get Here? A Brief History of Expected Returns Formation

June 20, 2025 - Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney

Part 4: We present our history of expectation formation: How have investors formed long-run return expectations over time, and how have academics perceived that investors do it, or ought to do it?

White Paper

Exceptional Expectations: U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities

May 9, 2025 - Antti Ilmanen Thomas Maloney

Part 2: We analyze the persistent outperformance of US equities compared to non-US equities, focusing on the drivers of relative performance, including fundamentals and valuations. We examine historical data, valuation trends, and the implications for future returns, highlighting the potential for mean reversion and the benefits of global diversification.

White Paper

A New Paradigm in Active Equity

February 5, 2025 - Alfie Brixton Charles Fattouche Thomas Maloney

Equity market concentration and technological innovation are two hot topics for active equity investors today. We argue that a systematic approach is uniquely positioned to capitalize on these topics.

White Paper

Seeking Resilient Growth: Why It’s Time for the LGPS to Consider Liquid Alternatives

November 1, 2024 - Thomas Maloney Elliott Coleman

Most Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) investment portfolios rely on substantial equity allocations to drive growth over the long term, but heroic rates of earnings growth would be needed to maintain recent strong equity performance. While LGPS have been turning to private assets to seek future returns and diversification, we make the case for truly diversifying liquid alternatives as a viable and versatile complement to existing portfolios, and explore the benefits of a transparent, quantitative approach.

White Paper

Rethinking DC Portfolio Diversification

August 25, 2023 - Elliott Coleman Thomas Maloney

We make the case for an allocation to liquid alternatives as a viable and versatile complement to existing DC portfolios.

White Paper

Corporate Arbitrage

May 18, 2023 - Thomas Maloney Michael Schwert

We introduce the main corporate arbitrage strategies, make the case for a multi-strategy approach, and review the role of a corporate arbitrage allocation within a broader portfolio.