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Journal Article

Demystifying Managed Futures

Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) managed approximately $320 billion as of the end of the first quarter of 2012, running “managed futures” funds that invest long or short in futures contracts on a variety of commodities, such as metals, grains, cotton and other physical goods, as well as futures and forwards on equity indices, Treasury bonds and currencies.

Journal Article

Time Series Momentum

We document an asset pricing anomaly we term “time series momentum,” which is remarkably consistent across very different asset classes and markets.

White Paper

Trend Following and Rising Rates

Can trend followers benefit from the impact of rising yields on asset class returns? We explore a simple trend-following strategy during rising rates and find that the strategy may benefit investors when markets experience gradual, persistent changes

White Paper

Dog Bites Man: In August, Equity Selling in Risk Parity Was a Tiny Fraction of Market Volume

Commentators like to believe all price changes are about investors moving capital. But prices can move without trading, or with very little trading, if investors’ assessments of fundamentals or their eagerness to take risk, changes.

White Paper

Understanding Risk Parity

This paper describes a simple risk parity strategy and compares its performance to the typical 60/40 portfolio over nearly 40 years of historical data.

White Paper

Can Risk Parity Outperform If Yields Rise?

Risk parity investing is not, as some critics say, simply “leveraging bonds.” The evidence suggests that a risk parity portfolio may improve long-term risk-adjusted returns relative to traditional, equity-centric portfolios.

White Paper

Building a Better Commodities Portfolio

Rather than relying on passive indexes like the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, investors can potentially build a better commodities portfolio by balancing risk across sectors and targeting a steady level of volatility through time.

White Paper

Understanding Managed Futures

Many investors have shied away from managed futures, perhaps due to a lack of understanding of how and why they work. This paper shows how such a strategy can be implemented. We then discuss their performance and diversification benefits historically

Journal Article

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

We simulate a trend-following strategy back to 1880 and investigate whether strong performance over a few decades was a statistical fluke, or a more robust phenomenon that may hold true over a wide range of economic conditions.

Journal Article

Commodities for the Long Run

This paper analyzes a novel data set of commodity futures prices between 1877-2015, allowing us to show that returns do vary significantly across business cycles but can add value to a diversified portfolio from an asset allocation perspective.