I’m taking a break from the factor timing wars to demonstrate something really important – that hockey’s New York Rangers not winning the Stanley Cup from 1940-1994 was a greater achievement (“achievement” being, you know, really bad in this context) than baseball’s Chicago Cubs not winning the World Series from 1908-2015. Besides a break, it’s also a nice math/probability reminder about looking at everything, not just headline numbers that seem applicable to investing. Furthermore, it’s apropos now as my New York Rangers just got eliminated from the hockey playoffs (after a very sad effort versus the Penguins) extending their latest, now 20+ year streak of no Cups, while the Cubbies are among the early favorites for this year’s World Series.
"Two-step" bets — where investors try to profit from macroeconomic events by anticipating which companies or currencies the events will most likely affect — are usually a bad idea, or at least much less likely to work out than the original macro insight. Here's why.
Cliff argues that certain well-known classic strategies that have worked over the long term will continue to work going forward, though perhaps not at the same level and with different risks than in the past. He focuses on classic “factor”-type strategies, things like value, momentum, carry and quality/defensive.