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White Paper
An August of Discontent
September 5, 2024
We cover why investors should not shrug off the August market reversal as a blip. In an environment of continued macroeconomic uncertainty, episodes of volatility will likely persist. We discuss the importance of building a well-diversified portfolio that is resilient to a wide range of future economic scenarios.
Perspective
The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis
September 3, 2024
I argue that over the past 30+ years markets have become less informationally efficient in the relative pricing of common stocks, particularly over medium horizons
Perspective
In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives
September 3, 2024
This note argues that good higher-volatility alternative investments, that are indeed often very hard to stick with, can be important tools in constructing the best overall portfolio. I think if (a big if) investors can stick with them, they are often a more effective tool than their lower-volatility cousins. Basically, I think they are underutilized
Data Set
Commodities for the Long Run: Index Level Data, Monthly
July 31, 2024
We have updated the data set for the paper “Commodities for the Long Run”, in which we analyze a novel data set of commodity futures prices going back to 1877, allowing us to show that returns of commodity futures indices have, on average, been positive over the long run. We update the data monthly.
Tax Matters
A 3-for-1 Solution for Concentrated Stock
April 9, 2024
Long/short tax-aware factor strategies may provide the means to offset gains resulting from a transition from a concentrated stock to a diversified portfolio.
Quick Takes
Top Three Investment Ideas to Consider for 2024
February 26, 2024
We highlight value, alternative trend strategies, and emerging market equities as top three investment ideas to consider for 2024.
White Paper
Is Your Equity Hedge Fund Portfolio Resilient Enough for Uncertain Times?
February 6, 2024
We analyze the historical macroeconomic sensitivity of traditional asset classes and major hedge fund strategies. We show that the average hedge fund is unlikely to provide meaningful diversification during periods of macro uncertainty, which are also typically difficult for traditional assets. However, long/short low-risk strategies have tended to exhibit low macro sensitivity.
White Paper
A Fresh Look at Multi-Strategy Alternatives
January 26, 2024
In this short piece, we review the case for multi-strategy alternatives, explaining why liquid, diversifying alternative strategies may have a decisive role to play in the tougher investment environment ahead.
Alternative Thinking
2024 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 16, 2024
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.
Quick Takes
Alternative Trend Following in Tough Times
December 11, 2023
In our latest Quick Take, we make the case for trend following in alternative markets and show how alternative trend following can complement a private assets allocation.