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Journal Article

Fight the Fed Model

Strategists, portfolio managers and market pundits often claim that the high market multiples of recent times are justified by low interest rates and/or inflation. The most widespread version of this comparison of stocks to bonds is often deemed the Fed model.

Journal Article

Why Not 100% Equities

In a 1994 article “College and University Endowment Funds: Why Not 100% Equities?” Richard H.

Journal Article

Derivatives Strategies for Endowment and Foundation Portfolios: The Manager Perspective

Many endowment and foundation funds automatically maintain a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and numerous researchers will tell them they are wrong.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Fed Policy Plays Catch-Up

Markets surged ahead in the first quarter largely in reaction to central bank policy that was more dovish than expected. However, markets may not fully appreciate the Fed’s ability to generate inflation.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Late Cycle Syndrome

The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Not Expecting to Hit Your Expected Return? Cash Is the Culprit

Today’s lower return targets for pension plans are actually harder to reach. Here’s why.

Alternative Thinking

Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?

Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.

Alternative Thinking

Tail-Hedging Strategies

Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

Good Strategies for Tough Times

Following recent losses across global equities and concern about downside risk, we take a look at the performance of different investments during the worst quarters in recent decades for stock and bond markets.