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Journal Article
Fight the Fed Model
September 1, 2003
Strategists, portfolio managers and market pundits often claim that the high market multiples of recent times are justified by low interest rates and/or inflation. The most widespread version of this comparison of stocks to bonds is often deemed the Fed model.
Journal Article
Why Not 100% Equities
December 1, 1996
In a 1994 article “College and University Endowment Funds: Why Not 100% Equities?” Richard H.
Journal Article
Derivatives Strategies for Endowment and Foundation Portfolios: The Manager Perspective
January 1, 1996
Many endowment and foundation funds automatically maintain a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and numerous researchers will tell them they are wrong.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Fed Policy Plays Catch-Up
May 8, 2019
Markets surged ahead in the first quarter largely in reaction to central bank policy that was more dovish than expected. However, markets may not fully appreciate the Fed’s ability to generate inflation.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Late Cycle Syndrome
September 18, 2019
The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Not Expecting to Hit Your Expected Return? Cash Is the Culprit
September 18, 2019
Today’s lower return targets for pension plans are actually harder to reach. Here’s why.
Alternative Thinking
Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?
2Q 2012
Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.
Alternative Thinking
Tail-Hedging Strategies
4Q 2012
Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts
Alternative Thinking
Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World
1Q 2012
There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.
Alternative Thinking
Good Strategies for Tough Times
3Q 2015
Following recent losses across global equities and concern about downside risk, we take a look at the performance of different investments during the worst quarters in recent decades for stock and bond markets.