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Chief Investment Quarterly

Fed Policy Plays Catch-Up

Markets surged ahead in the first quarter largely in reaction to central bank policy that was more dovish than expected. However, markets may not fully appreciate the Fed’s ability to generate inflation.

Chief Investment Quarterly

You Can’t Hedge, but You Can Diversify

Investors may benefit from adding diversifiers to their portfolios, but diversifiers aren’t hedges. Hedges serve a different purpose…unless they’re from Texas.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Who Knew Annuities Could Be So Exciting?!

The debate over annuities in Defined Contribution (DC) plans is so boring that it’s a bipartisan issue. But, their impact on retiree consumption is actually pretty exciting.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Not Expecting to Hit Your Expected Return? Cash Is the Culprit

Today’s lower return targets for pension plans are actually harder to reach. Here’s why.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Late Cycle Syndrome

The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Buffett's One Choice Buffet

We challenge an assertion in Warren Buffett's latest annual letter and emphasize the need for diversification for pensions and endowments.

Alternative Thinking

2019 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.

Alternative Thinking

Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?

Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.

Alternative Thinking

Tail-Hedging Strategies

Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.