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Journal Article
International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years
May 3, 2023
International diversification has hurt US-based investors for over 30 years, but the long-run case for it remains relevant. We show that both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification, buttressed by empirical supportive evidence. Additionally we show it would be dangerous to extrapolate the post-1990 outperformance of US equities.
White Paper
Re-Emerging Equities
March 28, 2023
The expected premium for investing in emerging versus developed equity markets is on the upper end of its past 25-year range. At the same time, many of the risks historically associated with emerging markets have secularly declined. We believe there is a strong case for investors to “re-up” their emerging allocations.
Perspective
Holding Our Breadth
February 6, 2023
Regular readers probably noticed I’ve been talking a lot about value lately. While I’m all for shining the spotlight onto the value dislocation, my colleagues also continue to produce a great breadth of research worth adding to your non-value-reading-list. I preview some of my recent favorites.
Journal Article
Investing in Interesting Times
January 31, 2023
Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: 2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 27, 2023
Hear from Pete Hecht and Thomas Maloney as they provide short soundbytes based on our Q1 2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
Alternative Thinking
2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
1Q 2023
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: New Rules of Diversification
September 9, 2022
Hear from AQR's Portfolio Solutions Group on the the prospects for stock and bond markets, the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.
Alternative Thinking
New Rules of Diversification
Q3 2022
During the first half of 2022, equity markets tumbled around 20% from their peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large. More worryingly, this type of downturn may be unfamiliar to many younger investors: with inflation still high, there is little prospect of central banks riding to the market’s rescue. We assess the prospects for stock and bond markets after the H1 selloff, consider the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and explore the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: The Stock/Bond Correlation
Q2 2022
For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation (SBC) has been consistently negative, and investors have been able to rely on their bond investments for portfolio protection when equities sell off. However, macroeconomic changes – like heightened inflation risk – could push this key asset allocation input into positive territory.
Journal Article
A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation
Q1 2023
For the past two decades, the stock/bond correlation – a fundamental detriment of risk in traditional portfolios – has been consistently negative. However, this hasn’t always been the case, and a positive stock/bond correlation could reappear due to macroeconomic changes. In this article, we assess the broad implications this would have for investors and set out practical steps to prepare for such an outcome.