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Perspective

Sin a Little

We apply value and momentum investing—which we believe to be the strongest empirical regularities in finance—to the age-old task of market timing, long been regarded by many as an investing sin. We find that investors may benefit from a modest amount of marketing timing.

Alternative Thinking

It Was the Worst of Times: Diversification During a Century of Drawdowns

We use nearly 100 years of data to evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying investments during the worst of times for most portfolios and find that attempting to tactically avoid equity sell-offs is likely to disappoint.

Alternative Thinking

2015 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our expected returns and review our framework for constructing estimates of long-term expected returns for major asset classes, among other things.

Alternative Thinking

Estimating Long Term Expected Returns

Diversification is underutilized in most institutional portfolios but may improve risk-adjusted returns, active returns and total returns more reliably than concentrated positions.

Alternative Thinking

Exploring Rates Sensitivity

Fed tightening has many investors interested in risks surrounding monetary policy, rising yields and inflation.

Alternative Thinking

2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.

Alternative Thinking

Bad Habits and Good Practices

Good investing requires good investments and good investors. We discuss the latter and address bad habits that can affect long-term performance.

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

Tail-Hedging Strategies

Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts

Alternative Thinking

Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?

Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.