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Alternative Thinking

Tail-Hedging Strategies

Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

Good Strategies for Tough Times

Following recent losses across global equities and concern about downside risk, we take a look at the performance of different investments during the worst quarters in recent decades for stock and bond markets.

Alternative Thinking

Estimating Long Term Expected Returns

Diversification is underutilized in most institutional portfolios but may improve risk-adjusted returns, active returns and total returns more reliably than concentrated positions.

Alternative Thinking

Challenges of Incorporating Tactical Views

Tactical timing is inherently more difficult than it seems. We explore which types of tactical views may be worth taking.

Alternative Thinking

2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.

Alternative Thinking

Bad Habits and Good Practices

Good investing requires good investments and good investors. We discuss the latter and address bad habits that can affect long-term performance.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Portfolio Construction

When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Risk Allocation

We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.

Alternative Thinking

Should Investors Worry About Rising Real Yields?

We document the response of various asset classes and strategies in historical episodes of sharply rising real bond yields—and found that investor portfolios tend to suffer less in bond-related tail events than in equity-related tail events.