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Chief Investment Quarterly
Fed Policy Plays Catch-Up
May 8, 2019
Markets surged ahead in the first quarter largely in reaction to central bank policy that was more dovish than expected. However, markets may not fully appreciate the Fed’s ability to generate inflation.
Chief Investment Quarterly
You Can’t Hedge, but You Can Diversify
May 8, 2019
Investors may benefit from adding diversifiers to their portfolios, but diversifiers aren’t hedges. Hedges serve a different purpose…unless they’re from Texas.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Who Knew Annuities Could Be So Exciting?!
May 8, 2019
The debate over annuities in Defined Contribution (DC) plans is so boring that it’s a bipartisan issue. But, their impact on retiree consumption is actually pretty exciting.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Not Expecting to Hit Your Expected Return? Cash Is the Culprit
September 18, 2019
Today’s lower return targets for pension plans are actually harder to reach. Here’s why.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Late Cycle Syndrome
September 18, 2019
The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Buffett's One Choice Buffet
June 7, 2019
We challenge an assertion in Warren Buffett's latest annual letter and emphasize the need for diversification for pensions and endowments.
Alternative Thinking
2019 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
February 4, 2019
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.
Alternative Thinking
Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?
2Q 2012
Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.
Alternative Thinking
Tail-Hedging Strategies
4Q 2012
Tail hedges are one way to potentially limit losses in adverse markets—but at a substantial cost. We discuss alternative approaches, such as trend-following strategies, which are more cost-effective and may offer portfolio protection in market downdrafts
Alternative Thinking
Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World
1Q 2012
There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.