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Perspective

It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin

Cliff discusses how to measure whether a factor, in this case the value factor, is itself rich or cheap versus history. The answer, regardless of the approach taken in measuring cheapness, is that value is currently quite cheap compared to history.

Perspective

The Valuesburg Address

One score and eight years ago Fama and French brought forth on this world, a new factor, conceived in either risk or behavioral effects, and dedicated to the proposition that all portfolios are not created equal. Now we are engaged in a great drawdown, testing whether investors in that factor, or any factor so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure…

Journal Article

Style Timing: Value vs. Growth

A large body of academic and industry research supports the efficacy of value strategies for choosing individual stocks.

Journal Article

The Siren Song of Factor Timing, aka “Smart Beta Timing,” aka “Style Timing”

Often the first question after an initial discussion of factors is “Okay, what’s the current outlook?” And the common answer, “The same as usual,” is often unsatisfying.

Perspective

Never Has a Venial Sin Been Punished This Quickly and Violently!

Three months ago in “It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin,” Cliff demonstrated the value factor’s historic cheapness, suggesting it’s time to “sin a little” and modestly overweight value. While portfolio tilts are seldom promptly rewarded, it’s also rare they are instantly punished. In this piece, Cliff shows how 2020 has been the exception to the rule, as value has begun this year with its worst loss in its decade-long drawdown.

Perspective

Going Deep on Contrarian Factor Timing

We studied all the interesting things that happen when some stocks, or other assets, get deeply cheap while others get deeply expensive, and learn more about value investing and how timing works when increasing breadth of comparisons.

Journal Article

Contrarian Factor Timing is Deceptively Difficult

The increasing popularity of factor investing has led to valuation concerns among some contrarian-minded investors and fears of imminent mean-reversion and underperformance.

Alternative Thinking

Challenges of Incorporating Tactical Views

Tactical timing is inherently more difficult than it seems. We explore which types of tactical views may be worth taking.

Working Paper

Deep Value

We examine the efficacy of a hypothetical deep value strategy—where the valuation spread between cheap and expensive securities is wide relative to its history—across global asset classes and also provide new evidence on competing theories for the value premium.