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Chief Investment Quarterly

Not Expecting to Hit Your Expected Return? Cash Is the Culprit

Today’s lower return targets for pension plans are actually harder to reach. Here’s why.

Data Set

Credit Risk Premium: Preliminary Paper Data

This data set is related to “Credit Risk Premium: Its Existence and Implications for Asset Allocation." Using data from both cash bond markets (1927–2014) and synthetic CDS markets (2004–2014), we document evidence of a sizable credit risk premium.

Systematic Fixed Income: Introduction

Systematic fixed income takes a rigorous, repeatable approach to investing in bonds.

Alternative Thinking

The Illusion of Active Fixed Income Diversification

We examine popular active fixed income categories and find that a persistent overweight to high yield credit explains the majority of fixed-income managers’ active returns. We then discuss some key implications for asset owners.

Working Paper

Financing Investment With Long-Term Debt and Uncertainty Shocks

This paper proposes a model of financing and investment for firms that attempts to explain both the weak correlation of Tobin’s Q with investment, and the higher correlation of bond yields with investment.

Alternative Thinking

Style Premia / Bond Returns

We review how style premia have historically generated attractive long-run returns in virtually every place we have studied them, and may help reduce risk through better diversification. We then look at fixed income returns in different environments

Alternative Thinking

Style Investing in Fixed Income

Systematic investing is often applied in equity markets but less so in fixed income. Here, we show that classic-style premia—typically applied in stock selection and equity country allocation—could have also work in fixed income markets.

Working Paper

A Reduced Form CoCo Model With Deterministic Conversion Intensity

Some financial institutions issue contingent convertible bonds to cushion their capital reserves in times of crisis. This paper builds a contingent convertible bond model with a minimum of stochastic factors that can be calibrated to market prices of related securities.

Working Paper

Asset-Measurement Uncertainty and Credit-Term Structure

Studying the spike in financial market volatility in 2007, this paper tests whether credit investors’ uncertainty about a company’s asset values affects short-term credit spreads and the underlying credit term-structure.

Working Paper

(Systematic) Investing in Emerging Market Debt

We extend the analysis of systematic investment approaches to emerging market (EM) fixed income. We find that systematic exposures linked to carry, defensive, momentum and valuation themes are well compensated and lowly correlated in EM markets, and that a systematic approach to EM debt may be a powerful diversifier.