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Alternative Thinking

Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?

Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.

Journal Article

Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds

The equity-bond risk premium — the long-run expected return advantage of stocks over government bonds — is one of the biggest questions in financial markets.

White Paper

Inflation in 2010 and Beyond — Part II

"In this paper, our analysis reveals that traditional institutional portfolios with risk characteristics similar to a 60/40 stocks/bonds allocation may not be well-positioned for unexpected inflation. "

White Paper

Changing Spaces Emerging Markets Investing

Over the past decade, emerging-market equities have become a meaningful portion of global equity markets. We provide some key insights to help investors evaluate their exposure.

White Paper

Implementing Portable Alpha: A Case Study

This 2007 case study examines what happens when a fictional public pension plan faces an equity market slump, lower expected equity-market returns and a legislature-mandated increase in the investment portfolio’s target real rate of return.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Portfolio Construction

When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Risk Allocation

We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.

Alternative Thinking

Mapping Investable Return Sources to Macro Environments

We explore the empirical relationships between investable strategies (asset classes and style premia) and macroeconomic environments. We find that style premia have meaningfully less macro exposure than do asset classes