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Alternative Thinking
Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?
2Q 2012
Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.
Alternative Thinking
Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World
1Q 2012
There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.
Alternative Thinking
2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
1Q 2014
We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.
Journal Article
Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds
December 1, 2003
The equity-bond risk premium — the long-run expected return advantage of stocks over government bonds — is one of the biggest questions in financial markets.
White Paper
Inflation in 2010 and Beyond — Part II
July 1, 2010
"In this paper, our analysis reveals that traditional institutional portfolios with risk characteristics similar to a 60/40 stocks/bonds allocation may not be well-positioned for unexpected inflation. "
White Paper
Changing Spaces Emerging Markets Investing
October 1, 2010
Over the past decade, emerging-market equities have become a meaningful portion of global equity markets. We provide some key insights to help investors evaluate their exposure.
White Paper
Implementing Portable Alpha: A Case Study
September 1, 2007
This 2007 case study examines what happens when a fictional public pension plan faces an equity market slump, lower expected equity-market returns and a legislature-mandated increase in the investment portfolio’s target real rate of return.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Portfolio Construction
2Q 2015
When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Risk Allocation
2Q 2014
We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.
Alternative Thinking
Mapping Investable Return Sources to Macro Environments
4Q 2013
We explore the empirical relationships between investable strategies (asset classes and style premia) and macroeconomic environments. We find that style premia have meaningfully less macro exposure than do asset classes