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Alternative Thinking
2019 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
February 4, 2019
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.
Alternative Thinking
Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?
2Q 2012
Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.
Alternative Thinking
Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World
1Q 2012
There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.
Alternative Thinking
Good Strategies for Tough Times
3Q 2015
Following recent losses across global equities and concern about downside risk, we take a look at the performance of different investments during the worst quarters in recent decades for stock and bond markets.
Alternative Thinking
Estimating Long Term Expected Returns
2Q 2013
Diversification is underutilized in most institutional portfolios but may improve risk-adjusted returns, active returns and total returns more reliably than concentrated positions.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Portfolio Construction
2Q 2015
When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.
Alternative Thinking
2020 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 29, 2020
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, and introduce a method for quantifying the expected return on cash.
Trade Publication
The 5% Solution
May 1, 2012
Institutional investors commonly target 5% real annual returns, or 7% to 8% nominal returns.
Alternative Thinking
2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
1Q 2014
We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Risk Allocation
2Q 2014
We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.