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Alternative Thinking
Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?
2Q 2012
Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.
Alternative Thinking
Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World
1Q 2012
There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.
Alternative Thinking
Estimating Long Term Expected Returns
2Q 2013
Diversification is underutilized in most institutional portfolios but may improve risk-adjusted returns, active returns and total returns more reliably than concentrated positions.
Working Paper
The Bubble Has Not Popped
October 24, 2001
Many called the stock market “undervalued” in 2002, based on how far and fast it had fallen over the prior two years. But this 2002 article contends that stocks are not necessarily cheap after the decline.
White Paper
Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment
August 21, 2017
In 2016, bond yields dropped to unprecedented low levels in major developed markets. Even in a low rate environment, we think it’s important to diversify across many return sources.
White Paper
Diversification Revisited
March 1, 2009
Many investors argue that diversification failed them during the market turmoil of 2007 and 2008. We challenge that line of thinking by examining the performance of different asset allocations through that market downturn.
Alternative Thinking
2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
1Q 2014
We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Portfolio Construction
2Q 2015
When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.
Alternative Thinking
Strategic Risk Allocation
2Q 2014
We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.
Alternative Thinking
Mapping Investable Return Sources to Macro Environments
4Q 2013
We explore the empirical relationships between investable strategies (asset classes and style premia) and macroeconomic environments. We find that style premia have meaningfully less macro exposure than do asset classes