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Alternative Thinking
2026 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 14, 2026
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a discussion on currency risk and currency hedging, with particular considerations for U.S. and European investors.
Alternative Thinking
2025 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 16, 2025
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a discussion on corporate earnings growth: the market consensus is for more strong growth to come – especially in the U.S. But what is a reasonable medium-term forecast for allocators?
Alternative Thinking
2024 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 16, 2024
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.
Journal Article
Investing in Interesting Times
January 31, 2023
Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: 2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 27, 2023
Hear from Pete Hecht and Thomas Maloney as they provide short soundbytes based on our Q1 2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
Alternative Thinking
2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 23, 2023
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.
Quick Takes
Quick Clips: 2022 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 27, 2022
Performance of traditional stock/bond portfolios has been remarkable over the last decade, but the current outlook is more subdued. Hear from AQR’s Portfolio Solutions Group on some practical, incremental changes that could boost expected returns without adding substantial risk.
Alternative Thinking
2022 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
Q1 2022
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include an analysis that attempts to reconcile ever-lower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns and suggests practical strategic steps to boost portfolio expected returns.
Alternative Thinking
What’s the Worst That Should Happen?
Q3 2021
Expected returns on traditional assets are lower than their historical averages, yet the same is not true for risks. Setting expectations may be more important today than ever. We provide a framework to set expectations on downside risk, one that can be used for a range of assets, portfolios, and investment decisions.
Alternative Thinking
2021 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
Q1 2021
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also discuss what investors should expect from the stock-bond correlation in the coming decade.