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Perspective

It Ain't What You Don't Know That Gets You Into Trouble

My colleagues have written two papers questioning things we thought we knew. The first questions what we really know about current stock market valuations forecasting long-horizon future returns and the second explores whether or not the size effect really exists.

Perspective

Sin a Little

We apply value and momentum investing—which we believe to be the strongest empirical regularities in finance—to the age-old task of market timing, long been regarded by many as an investing sin. We find that investors may benefit from a modest amount of marketing timing.

Alternative Thinking

Challenges of Incorporating Tactical Views

Tactical timing is inherently more difficult than it seems. We explore which types of tactical views may be worth taking.

Alternative Thinking

Exploring Rates Sensitivity

Fed tightening has many investors interested in risks surrounding monetary policy, rising yields and inflation.

White Paper

Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment

In 2016, bond yields dropped to unprecedented low levels in major developed markets. Even in a low rate environment, we think it’s important to diversify across many return sources.

Journal Article

Liquidity-Driven Dynamic Asset Allocation

Portfolio management is moving toward a more flexible approach capable of capturing dynamics in risk and return expectations across an array of global asset classes.

Working Paper

Robust Dynamic Asset Allocation With Model Misspecification

This paper derives the optimal dynamic trading strategy when the investor's model of alpha-decay is misspecified. This robust trading strategy can be computed easily by solving a standard linear quadratic Gaussian dynamic programming problem.

White Paper

An Old Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E

Based on the past, the 2012 level of the S&P 500 Shiller P/E —a particularly useful measure of the valuation of the U.S. stock market—suggests that investors should plan for lower average annual stock market returns over the following decade.

Alternative Thinking

It Was the Worst of Times: Diversification During a Century of Drawdowns

We use nearly 100 years of data to evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying investments during the worst of times for most portfolios and find that attempting to tactically avoid equity sell-offs is likely to disappoint.

Trade Publication

Back in the Hunt

Market timing is very hard.