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Perspective

It Ain't What You Don't Know That Gets You Into Trouble

My colleagues have written two papers questioning things we thought we knew. The first questions what we really know about current stock market valuations forecasting long-horizon future returns and the second explores whether or not the size effect really exists.

White Paper

Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment

In 2016, bond yields dropped to unprecedented low levels in major developed markets. Even in a low rate environment, we think it’s important to diversify across many return sources.

Journal Article

Market Timing: Sin a Little

Is market timing an easy source of added value or a sin to be avoided? We examine the evidence and find that adding a dose of momentum is a practical way to enhance value timing strategies. Investors may benefit from a modest amount of market timing.

Working Paper

Robust Dynamic Asset Allocation With Model Misspecification

This paper derives the optimal dynamic trading strategy when the investor's model of alpha-decay is misspecified. This robust trading strategy can be computed easily by solving a standard linear quadratic Gaussian dynamic programming problem.

Alternative Thinking

Exploring Rates Sensitivity

Fed tightening has many investors interested in risks surrounding monetary policy, rising yields and inflation.

Journal Article

Long Horizon Predictability: A Cautionary Tale

We show there is much less evidence of long-horizon return predictability than existing research suggests, casting doubt over claims about forecasts based on stock market valuations and factor timing.

Alternative Thinking

Challenges of Incorporating Tactical Views

Tactical timing is inherently more difficult than it seems. We explore which types of tactical views may be worth taking.

Working Paper

One Reason Not to Avoid Market Timing

Market timing should be undertaken only to the extent an investor feels his skills overcome the hurdles.

Alternative Thinking

It Was the Worst of Times: Diversification During a Century of Drawdowns

We use nearly 100 years of data to evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying investments during the worst of times for most portfolios and find that attempting to tactically avoid equity sell-offs is likely to disappoint.

Trade Publication

Back in the Hunt

Market timing is very hard.