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Alternative Thinking
Fire and Ice: Confronting the Twin Perils of Inflation and Deflation
Q4 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic and the responses to it by governments, central banks and consumers have unleashed both disinflationary and inflationary forces, but we do not know which forces will win over the longer term. We explore the historical inflation sensitivities of a range of different investments and present the benefits of both risk-balanced asset allocations and dynamic directional strategies to prepare for uncertain times.
Perspective
Never Has a Venial Sin Been Punished This Quickly and Violently!
February 19, 2020
Three months ago in “It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin,” Cliff demonstrated the value factor’s historic cheapness, suggesting it’s time to “sin a little” and modestly overweight value. While portfolio tilts are seldom promptly rewarded, it’s also rare they are instantly punished. In this piece, Cliff shows how 2020 has been the exception to the rule, as value has begun this year with its worst loss in its decade-long drawdown.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Late Cycle Syndrome
September 18, 2019
The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.
Alternative Thinking
It Was the Worst of Times: Diversification During a Century of Drawdowns
September 26, 2018
We use nearly 100 years of data to evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying investments during the worst of times for most portfolios and find that attempting to tactically avoid equity sell-offs is likely to disappoint.
Perspective
It Ain't What You Don't Know That Gets You Into Trouble
June 20, 2018
My colleagues have written two papers questioning things we thought we knew. The first questions what we really know about current stock market valuations forecasting long-horizon future returns and the second explores whether or not the size effect really exists.
Journal Article
Long Horizon Predictability: A Cautionary Tale
June 18, 2018
We show there is much less evidence of long-horizon return predictability than existing research suggests, casting doubt over claims about forecasts based on stock market valuations and factor timing.
Journal Article
Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment
August 21, 2017
In 2016, bond yields dropped to unprecedented low levels in major developed markets. Even in a low rate environment, we think it’s important to diversify across many return sources.
Journal Article
Market Timing: Sin a Little
August 9, 2017
Is market timing an easy source of added value or a sin to be avoided? We examine the evidence and find that adding a dose of momentum is a practical way to enhance value timing strategies. Investors may benefit from a modest amount of market timing.
Alternative Thinking
Exploring Rates Sensitivity
2Q 2017
Fed tightening has many investors interested in risks surrounding monetary policy, rising yields and inflation.
Perspective
Sin a Little
November 11, 2015
We apply value and momentum investing—which we believe to be the strongest empirical regularities in finance—to the age-old task of market timing, long been regarded by many as an investing sin. We find that investors may benefit from a modest amount of marketing timing.