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Data Set
Time Series Momentum: Factors, Monthly
May 31, 2023
We have updated and extended our data set for “Time Series Momentum" (Moskowitz, Ooi and Pedersen, 2012), in which we document an asset-pricing anomaly that is consistent across different asset classes and markets. We update the returns monthly.
White Paper
Certainly Uncertain
May 16, 2023
We certainly find ourselves in uncertain times – but how uncertain are they? We show macro uncertainty is currently high versus history. We also address whether elevated macro uncertainty is likely to persist, or if we should instead expect a return to the low uncertainty environment. Lastly, we address the implications for investors, both in terms of possible returns to traditional assets, and as to what alternatives might prosper or decline in such an environment.
White Paper
Economic Trend
May 12, 2023
“Economic trend” capitalizes on the tendency for new information to have a persistent impact on asset prices by positioning in each market on the basis of trends in macroeconomic fundamentals. The strategy has realized consistently attractive risk-adjusted returns over a 50+ year sample, and performance is pervasive across both markets and measures. While it is a close relative of price trend-following, the two strategies are highly complementary.
Quick Takes
Trend Following in Alternative Markets
Q1 2023
What is alternative trend following? We summarize what a trend following approach is, how it can be applied to alternative markets, and why alternative trend following approaches have historically outperformed during difficult periods for traditional asset classes.
Quick Takes
Top Three Investment Ideas to Consider for 2023
Q1 2023
Watch a Quick Take on our Portfolio Solutions Group’s top three investment ideas for 2023.
Journal Article
Investing in Interesting Times
January 31, 2023
Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.
Alternative Thinking
Should Your Portfolio Protection Work Fast or Slow?
Q4 2022
2022’s drawdown provides a clear picture for the types of strategies that can actually deliver in a “slow burn” market downturn. While some options-based strategies have generated positive returns, in many cases they have disappointed. In contrast, trend following strategies have generally posted very strong returns. Looking ahead, many of the macro conditions that have been advantageous to trend following are still in place—and have historically tended to persist.
White Paper
Trend-Following: Why Now? A Macro Perspective
November 16, 2022
Trend following is having a banner 2022 amidst a year of turmoil for traditional portfolios, but investors exploring an allocation to trend-following may be wondering if they are “late to the trade,” while also anchoring their expectations to the lean 2010s. We show that both the macroeconomic picture and empirical evidence suggest that strong performance for trend-following may persist, making it a potentially valuable source of diversifying returns during a challenging time for the rest of investors’ portfolios.
Perspective
The Raisons d'être of Managed Futures
August 17, 2022
Managed Futures strategies have an implicit dual mandate, First, to deliver positive returns on average and second, to generate especially attractive returns during large equity market drawdowns. This is one of the big reasons managed futures strategies can be valuable in a portfolio. Unfortunately, by and large, the industry—intentionally or not—has been optimizing for one at the expense of the other by introducing carry and market beta exposure.
White Paper
When Stock-Bond Diversification Fails
October 27, 2021
The events of 2020 to 2021 have increased uncertainty around the future path of inflation. We review how different inflationary outcomes can impact investor portfolios and evaluate what assets and strategies may enhance portfolio resilience to inflation.