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White Paper
Building a Better Commodities Portfolio
April 22, 2022
Interest in commodities is rising again, thanks to their tendency to be particularly strong diversifiers during periods of rising or volatile inflation. We review what a “best-in-class” commodity portfolio looks like by exploring three potential enhancements to a passive approach to the asset class.
White Paper
Building a Better Commodities Portfolio (2012)
July 1, 2012
Rather than relying on passive indexes like the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, investors can potentially build a better commodities portfolio by balancing risk across sectors and targeting a steady level of volatility through time.
Data Set
Commodities for the Long Run: Original Paper Data
October 3, 2018
This is the original data set used for our paper “Commodities for the Long Run”, in which we analyze a novel data set of commodity futures prices going back to 1877, allowing us to show that returns of commodity futures indices have, on average, been positive over the long run.
Journal Article
Commodities for the Long Run
October 20, 2016
This paper analyzes a novel data set of commodity futures prices between 1877-2015, allowing us to show that returns do vary significantly across business cycles but can add value to a diversified portfolio from an asset allocation perspective.
Data Set
Commodities for the Long Run: Index Level Data, Monthly
August 31, 2023
We have updated the data set for the paper “Commodities for the Long Run”, in which we analyze a novel data set of commodity futures prices going back to 1877, allowing us to show that returns of commodity futures indices have, on average, been positive over the long run. We update the data monthly.
Journal Article
Demystifying Managed Futures
February 1, 2013
Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) managed approximately $320 billion as of the end of the first quarter of 2012, running “managed futures” funds that invest long or short in futures contracts on a variety of commodities, such as metals, grains, cotton and other physical goods, as well as futures and forwards on equity indices, Treasury bonds and currencies.
Alternative Thinking
2016 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
1Q 2016
We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets, and investigate expected returns for credits and commodities.
Journal Article
Adverse Selection and the Required Return
January 1, 2004
Securities are traded by buyers and sellers with different levels of knowledge about those securities.
Journal Article
Carry
November 7, 2013
An asset’s “carry” is its expected return assuming that market conditions, including its price, stay the same. We find that carry predicts returns both in the cross section and time series for a variety of different asset classes.