Wide-ranging, evidence-driven, and practical investment insights from our Portfolio Solutions Group
September 18, 2024
This paper presents one justifiable set of inputs and finds that alternatives earn themselves a sizable strategic allocation. Investors are encouraged to compare these results with their own assumptions, constraints and allocations as they look to build a resilient portfolio for long-term investment success.
Machine Learning
November 7, 2024
In the second issue of our 2024 Alternative Thinking series, we showed that machine learning techniques can be used to help improve market timing strategies. In this issue, we extend these concepts to constructing stock selection strategies following a similar framework. Our results indicate more complex models utilizing machine learning techniques yield performance improvements relative to a simple, linear approach in the range of 50-100%, suggesting that machine learning can help to build better stock selection portfolios.
Machine Learning
May 6, 2024
Common wisdom has suggested that small, simple models are best suited for market timing applications, given finance’s “small data” constraint and naturally low predictability. However, we show that complex models better identify true nonlinear relationships and therefore produce better market timing strategy performance. We validate this "virtue of complexity" result in three practical market timing applications.
Asset Allocation
January 16, 2024
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.
December 5, 2023
Investors are looking for resilient sources of return in the face of mounting headwinds for equity markets. Long/short and market-neutral equity strategies deserve consideration. We review the case for allocating to long/short equity and address several key choices faced by investors and by managers.
Asset Allocation
September 5, 2023
What are the implications of higher interest rates for asset allocation? This article reviews historical patterns and forward-looking expected returns for a range of asset classes, and highlights the role of “cash-plus” liquid alternatives — overlooked beneficiaries of higher cash rates. We show that in a higher-rate world that investors haven’t seen for many years, diversification away from equities may prove to be especially valuable.
Alternative Investing
June 12, 2023
After 2022 showed the downside of traditional portfolios’ reliance on equity risk, many investors have recently begun to reconsider the role of risk-mitigating portfolios within their broader asset allocations. We show why we believe trend following deserves a prominent place in any serious risk-mitigation portfolio.
Asset Allocation
1Q 2023
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.
Portfolio Risk and Performance
Q4 2022
2022’s drawdown provides a clear picture for the types of strategies that can actually deliver in a “slow burn” market downturn. While some options-based strategies have generated positive returns, in many cases they have disappointed. In contrast, trend following strategies have generally posted very strong returns. Looking ahead, many of the macro conditions that have been advantageous to trend following are still in place—and have historically tended to persist.
Portfolio Construction
Q3 2022
During the first half of 2022, equity markets tumbled around 20% from their peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large. More worryingly, this type of downturn may be unfamiliar to many younger investors: with inflation still high, there is little prospect of central banks riding to the market’s rescue. We assess the prospects for stock and bond markets after the H1 selloff, consider the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and explore the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.
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