February 2, 2018
We update our medium-term expected returns for major asset classes and explore the historical accuracy of yield-based return estimates.
December 7, 2017
We examine popular active fixed income categories and find that a persistent overweight to high yield credit explains the majority of fixed-income managers’ active returns. We then discuss some key implications for asset owners.
Systematic and fundamental investing approaches are not opposites. Both pursue the same objective and can be fundamentally-oriented. They can use similar inputs, but in different ways, to try to improve investment performance. Neither is necessarily better than the other.
Fed tightening has many investors interested in risks surrounding monetary policy, rising yields and inflation.
We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets. Compared with historical averages of value metrics, we beloieve we are in a low expected return environment.
December 6, 2016
Many famous investors are outspoken about their investment philosophies and use them selectively. We seek to apply their wisdom systematically to determine whether their philosophies, if applied broadly, might still generate “alpha.”
Systematic investing is often applied in equity markets but less so in fixed income. Here, we show that classic style premia—typically applied in stock selection and equity country allocation— could have also work in fixed income markets.
Active equity investors may increase expected portfolio returns by relaxing the long-only constraint. The investment community has largely turned away from strategies that short bad stocks, but we find that they may want to take a renewed look.
We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets, and investigate expected returns for credits and commodities.
Following recent losses across global equities and concern about downside risk, we take a look at the performance of different investments during the worst quarters in recent decades for stock and bond markets.