Arbitrage

Corporate Arbitrage

We introduce the main corporate arbitrage strategies, make the case for a multi-strategy approach, and review the role of a corporate arbitrage allocation within a broader portfolio.

Macroeconomics

Certainly Uncertain

We certainly find ourselves in uncertain times – but how uncertain are they? We show macro uncertainty is currently high versus history. We also address whether elevated macro uncertainty is likely to persist, or if we should instead expect a return to the low uncertainty environment. Lastly, we address the implications for investors, both in terms of possible returns to traditional assets, and as to what alternatives might prosper or decline in such an environment.

Trend Following

Economic Trend

“Economic trend” capitalizes on the tendency for new information to have a persistent impact on asset prices by positioning in each market on the basis of trends in macroeconomic fundamentals. The strategy has realized consistently attractive risk-adjusted returns over a 50+ year sample, and performance is pervasive across both markets and measures. While it is a close relative of price trend-following, the two strategies are highly complementary.

Tax Aware

Beyond Direct Indexing: Dynamic Direct Long-Short Investing

On average, net losses realized by direct indexing loss-harvesting strategies taper off within the first few years after their inception, and these strategies also exhibit a high dispersion of net loss outcomes. We show that long-short strategies motivated by factor investing can significantly outperform direct indexing strategies from both a pre-tax and tax perspective.

Equities

International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years

International diversification has hurt US-based investors for over 30 years, but the long-run case for it remains relevant. We show that both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification, buttressed by empirical supportive evidence. Additionally we show it would be dangerous to extrapolate the post-1990 outperformance of US equities.

Equities

Re-Emerging Equities

The expected premium for investing in emerging versus developed equity markets is on the upper end of its past 25-year range. At the same time, many of the risks historically associated with emerging markets have secularly declined. We believe there is a strong case for investors to “re-up” their emerging allocations.

Annual ESG Report 2022

As part of our ongoing commitment to ESG, we are pleased to share our ESG annual report with you. This report reviews our ESG developments and progress in 2022, while outlining our approach, governance structure, and dedicated resources to this increasingly important aspect of investing.

ESG Investing

How Portfolios Can Impact the Real Economy

To help clarify how investors seeking impact through their financial portfolios can affect the direction of corporate decision making, we analyze the two channels of influence – direct control and changing the cost of capital. We argue that there are no other first-order mechanisms for a financial portfolio to have “impact” beyond these. As a real-world example, we apply these insights to the portfolio “net zero” initiative.

Asset Allocation

Investing in Interesting Times

Given 2022’s cheapening of asset valuations, some have questioned if we are still in a world of low expected returns. We review what’s changed after 2022, showing that the lower expected return picture has not been substantially altered for many asset classes. We provide some suggestions to potentially ameliorate the pain caused by this environment.

Value

Value: Why Now? Capturing the Comeback in Its Early Innings

Value has delivered attractive long-term returns but has also weathered difficult short-term periods. While these times are painful for investors, the subsequent recoveries are lucrative for those that stick with the factor. We summarize the evidence for why we believe long/short value continues to be an exceptional go-forward opportunity and how investors can adapt their portfolios accordingly.