Fixed Income

Active Fixed Income Illusions

Across a broad set of popular active fixed income categories, we find that passive exposures to traditional risk premia (especially exposure to credit risk) explain the majority of fixed income manager active returns.

Subscribe for more insights

Macroeconomics

We Found Love in an Unchanged Rate

For this Valentine’s Day we give you more of what you love: a look at what the Fed might do in an election year. Will the Cupids of monetary policy shoot any arrows, or will they leave Fed watchers brokenhearted?

Macroeconomics

U[Pd]ate

In the 1980s, the Palladium was one of the hottest clubs in New York. Now it is a college dormitory. But don’t despair, the metal palladium is now the hottest commodity in the world, and its rise is instructive for investors who are interested in how commodities work and why small markets can make big moves. So, take a few minutes away from reports on the coronavirus to read about catalytic converters and a lustrous silvery metal.

Alternative Thinking

2020 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, and introduce a method for quantifying the expected return on cash.

Macro Wrap-Up

Sweden's Noll Hypothesis

This week's Wrap-Up examines monetary policy in Sweden. It may not win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, but it will explain why the Riksbank is becoming arguably the most important central bank in the world for investors to follow.

Macroeconomics

2020 Vision

Forecasters are easy targets. You can always find something they got wrong. Yet people still place enormous weight on their predictions, perhaps setting themselves up for disappointment. This week we look at last year’s forecasts on the economy and markets and how they’ve changed coming into the New Year. We also consider how investors should think about forecasts in building their portfolios. Hint: it’s not to assume they’ll always be right.

Macroeconomics

New Year, Same Econo-me

This week we look at the most important macro themes of the past year. It’s like one of those old sitcom episodes with five minutes of new scenes cut between twenty five minutes of flashbacks from the rest of the season.

Machine Learning

Predicting Returns with Text Data

We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns.

Fixed Income

Active Fixed Income Illusions

Across a broad set of popular active fixed income categories, we find that passive exposures to traditional risk premia (especially exposure to credit risk) explain the majority of fixed income manager active returns.

Macroeconomics

Deficitly Maybe

Deficit spending during times of low unemployment is like getting a stationary bike from your government as a gift. Initially it makes you nervous, but you find it slowly starts to boost economic growth. You don't realize how much it changes markets. It's not clear yet if investors should thank the government.

Macroeconomics

At Any Rate

This week we look at negative rates from a different perspective. Rather than evaluate their effectiveness as a policy tool or their economic impact, we try to answer one question: why would anyone buy a negative yielding bond?