Working Paper

Is There a Replication Crisis in Finance?

Several papers argue that financial economics faces a replication crisis because many studies cannot be replicated or are the result of multiple testing of too many factors. We develop and estimate a Bayesian model of factor replication that leads to different conclusions, including finding the majority of asset pricing factors can be replicated.

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Alternative Investing

The Tax Benefits of Direct Indexing

An investor holding a direct indexing portfolio can obtain tax benefits by harvesting losses on individual stock positions. We show that investors with allocations to hedge funds and derivatives are the most likely category of investors to have systematic short-term capital gains in their portfolios and, therefore, benefit the most from losses harvested by direct-indexing strategies. We show how tax benefits are affected by equalizing the tax rate applicable to long-term and short-term capital gains.

Quick Clips: Tax Aware Alternatives

Hear from Ted Pyne, Head of AQR’s U.S. Wealth Group, on the potential benefits of tax aware alternatives for U.S. taxable investors.

Factor/Style Investing

Is There a Replication Crisis in Finance?

Several papers argue that financial economics faces a replication crisis because many studies cannot be replicated or are the result of multiple testing of too many factors. We develop and estimate a Bayesian model of factor replication that leads to different conclusions, including finding the majority of asset pricing factors can be replicated.

A Unified Framework for Value and Momentum

This paper provides a simple unifying framework for value and momentum effects in asset pricing based on the present value model. Backing out reliable expected returns from the present value model requires valuation ratios that adjust for expected future earnings growth. We show empirically that stock price momentum forecasts future growth, helps to improve value’s forecast for expected returns, and is drowned out when accounting for realized growth.

Tax Aware

Limitation on Trader Fund Losses under the CARES Act of 2020

This paper provides a simple unifying framework for value and momentum effects in asset pricing based on the present value model. Backing out reliable expected returns from the present value model requires valuation ratios that adjust for expected future earnings growth. We show empirically that stock price momentum forecasts future growth, helps to improve value’s forecast for expected returns, and is drowned out when accounting for realized growth.

Trading

Game On: Social Networks and Markets

This paper studies how echo-chamber effects and fake news can lead to disagreement and misinformation with effects on investors’ portfolios and market prices. It presents a model how an investment idea can propagate through a social network, generating a trading frenzy with high turnover, a bubble in the price, and high price volatility. The paper also presents empirical evidence on the dramatic events related to the GameStop stock in January 2021 and discusses broader economic implications.

Quick Clips: Still Dislocated? AQR's Arbitrage Outlook

The sharp deleveraging across arbitrage markets in March 2020 was followed by very strong performance in 2H 2020. In our recent webinar and summary, we review what drove last year’s returns in SPACs, convertibles and mergers, and discuss why we are optimistic about the outlook for 2021 and beyond.

Asset Allocation

2021 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also discuss what investors should expect from the stock-bond correlation in the coming decade.

Macroeconomics

Fire and Ice: Confronting the Twin Perils of Inflation and Deflation

The COVID-19 pandemic and the responses to it by governments, central banks and consumers have unleashed both disinflationary and inflationary forces, but we do not know which forces will win over the longer term. We explore the historical inflation sensitivities of a range of different investments and present the benefits of both risk-balanced asset allocations and dynamic directional strategies to prepare for uncertain times.

ESG Investing

(Car)Bon Voyage: The Road to Low Carbon Investment Portfolios

We discuss how an investment portfolio could dramatically reduce its carbon footprint, potentially even achieving a ‘net zero’ carbon footprint. We discuss the pros and cons of techniques to achieve carbon reduction goals, including security selection, shorting high carbon footprint companies, and trading instruments such as carbon offsets and carbon permits.