June 20, 2025
We present our history of expectation formation: How have investors formed long-run return expectations over time, and how have academics perceived that investors do it, or ought to do it?
Read moreJune 3, 2025
Streaky return streams - ones that that can perform well or poorly for extended periods - are challenging for investors to comprehend and stick with. Yet, this very "complexity risk” may be what earns investors an additional risk premium, leading to above average risk-adjusted returns.
Read moreMay 27, 2025
This article explores the contrast in how investors form long-run expectations in equity and bond markets. It also examines very long run trends in financial market variables and potential implications for the future.
Read moreCliff's Perspectives
June 5, 2025
This post revisits and refutes a long-standing argument against market timing—that missing just a few of the market’s best days can devastate returns—by demonstrating its logical flaws and statistical irrelevance. Using both historical and out-of-sample data, it shows that the risks and rewards of market timing are more symmetric than commonly portrayed.
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Strategies
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