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Journal Article

Markets in Crisis

History has not dealt kindly with investors in the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums.

Journal Article

Where Will Fiscal Stimulus Lead G7 Economies?

The Great Recession has produced a decline of $10 trillion in U.S. household wealth alone. Will the fiscal stimulus by G7 countries guarantee a return to growth, or will the cost of it impede recovery and hamper medium-term prospects?

Chief Investment Quarterly

Fed Policy Plays Catch-Up

Markets surged ahead in the first quarter largely in reaction to central bank policy that was more dovish than expected. However, markets may not fully appreciate the Fed’s ability to generate inflation.

Chief Investment Quarterly

Late Cycle Syndrome

The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.

Alternative Thinking

Inversion Anxiety: Yield Curves, Economic Growth, and Asset Prices

We evaluate the ability of the yield curve slope to forecast future economic conditions, as well as returns on stocks and bonds, using over 50 years of data across six countries.

Journal Article

When Do Bond Markets Reward Investors for Interest Rate Risk?

Fixed-income portfolio managers pay considerable attention to risk/return tradeoffs.

Journal Article

Parallels Between the Cross-Sectional Predictability of Stock and Country Returns

Firm characteristics such as book-to-market ratio, market equity and one-year past return help explain the cross-section of average returns on U.S.

Macro Wrap-Up

Taking The Easy Way Out

Mario Draghi’s term as President of the European Central Bank is about to end. After eight years at what could be the most difficult job in Europe, most folks would be ready to bow out quietly. Not so - Mario D’s not ready to give up the mic just yet. This week, we look at what he’s considering doing in his last few months running things.

Macro Wrap-Up

Feels So Good Being Bad

Charging fees for ATM usage. Closing early on Saturdays. Making customers say "representative" ten times before getting a real person for customer service. These are all things bad banks do. That is not what we’re covering this week. Instead we’re looking at the use of so called "bad banks" as a tool for restructuring and maintaining financial stability. In this case bad banks may be a good thing.

Macro Wrap-Up

The Fed is Signaling a Cut. But Why Though?

There is a strong consensus among market participants that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting. There is an almost equally strong consensus that they don’t understand why the Fed will cut rates. This week we look at the confusing, contradictory logic which is driving the Fed’s convoluted communication. We hope it will seem a little more clear.