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Macro Wrap-Up

New Year, Same Econo-me

This week we look at the most important macro themes of the past year. It’s like one of those old sitcom episodes with five minutes of new scenes cut between twenty five minutes of flashbacks from the rest of the season.

Macro Wrap-Up

Who is the MVP of the Market (Most Valued Performer)?

This week we give you a recap of the major moves in macro markets so far this year. In order to make it more topical, we compare each of these markets to NBA playoff teams. We find that much of the teams’ performance can be explained by market beta.

Macro Wrap-Up

Deficitly Maybe

Deficit spending during times of low unemployment is like getting a stationary bike from your government as a gift. Initially it makes you nervous, but you find it slowly starts to boost economic growth. You don't realize how much it changes markets. It's not clear yet if investors should thank the government.

Macro Wrap-Up

2020 Vision

Forecasters are easy targets. You can always find something they got wrong. Yet people still place enormous weight on their predictions, perhaps setting themselves up for disappointment. This week we look at last year’s forecasts on the economy and markets and how they’ve changed coming into the New Year. We also consider how investors should think about forecasts in building their portfolios. Hint: it’s not to assume they’ll always be right.

Macro Wrap-Up

Winter is Coming Before Brexit

Does reading about Brexit make you feel like a guest of Ramsay Bolton? This week we try to give you a clear account of what is going on and what to look for in markets. It won’t bring peace to the Seven Kingdoms, but it may answer some of your questions about Brexit

Book

20 for Twenty: Selected Papers from AQR Capital Management

20 for Twenty commemorates AQR’s anniversary with a collection of 20 papers that have formed the backbone of our investment philosophy.

Macro Wrap-Up

Jobs Are Good

This week we look at why stocks sometimes react positively to strong employment numbers, while other times they don't. We promise it will be more exciting than the Super Bowl half-time show was.

Macro Wrap-Up

Notes from the Underground Trading Desk

In this week’s Wrap-Up, we cover the turmoil in the repo markets. We explain what repos are, why they are dislocated, and what this means for other markets. While it may not be time to worry yet, we consider developments in money markets that might tell us it’s time to be more cautious.

Macro Wrap-Up

We Interrupt Your Regularly Scheduled Fed Programming

This week we look beyond the acronyms to understand what the Fed is trying to accomplish with its aggressive measures.

Macro Wrap-Up

A Black Zero Sum Game

Black zero may sound like a bad diet cola, but it is the literal translation of Germany’s Schwarze Null zero deficit policy. While many other developed countries have been running up government debt, Germany has been a model of fiscal discipline. This has led to calls for reform…in Germany. This week, we look at why Germany is so German and what a change in policy would mean for markets.