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Working Paper

More Banks, Less Crime? The Real and Social Effects of Bank Competition

Using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks, this paper provides microlevel (within-county) evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and finds a spillover effect on crime.

Working Paper

Variables That Explain Stock Returns

Cliff's University of Chicago dissertation. He uncovers the strong explanatory power of past returns for the cross-section of current returns and describes many reasons why past returns might be priced.

Working Paper

An Anomaly in the Topix-Nikkei Spread

Macro Wrap-Up

Australia Avoids the Breaking Point

Australia has broken some of the “laws” of economics by avoiding recession for thirty years. Now the economy faces some challenges. Find out what they are and what it may mean for the future.

Macro Wrap-Up

Does Anyone Remember the Carry Trade?

This week’s Wrap-Up looks at carry portfolios and carry trades and why commentators may be avoiding the topic.

Macro Wrap-Up

Notes from the Underground Trading Desk

In this week’s Wrap-Up, we cover the turmoil in the repo markets. We explain what repos are, why they are dislocated, and what this means for other markets. While it may not be time to worry yet, we consider developments in money markets that might tell us it’s time to be more cautious.

Macro Wrap-Up

We Interrupt Your Regularly Scheduled Fed Programming

This week we look beyond the acronyms to understand what the Fed is trying to accomplish with its aggressive measures.

Macro Wrap-Up

No Quick Fix for FX

Currency intervention has all but disappeared as a tool for U.S. policymakers. This week, we look at why it remains a popular topic of discussion for macro investors, even though officials claim they’ve ruled it out. It’s quite the trilemma for investors.


This week we’re putting the global back in global macro. It may seem as though the paths of economies around the world are diverging, with the U.S. outperforming and others lagging, but a closer look reveals more similarities than differences. It’s a new kind of global synchronization.

Macro Wrap-Up

Phone A Friend

Unexpected market moves have been around as long as Who wants to be a Millionaire? Whenever they occur, we get almost as many questions as a contestant on that show. As always we appreciate your input – unlike some contestants we won’t walk away from any questions. We sometimes change the exact text of the questions, but we try to capture their tone.