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What They Say, Not What They Do

It’s not a good idea to stare at your P&L all day. It addictive and you see things which don’t make sense. This week’s Wrap-Up is about the puzzling stock market moves after the ECB meeting last week. It’s for anyone whose portfolio has ever had a bad reaction to a good news story.

Dollar Signs

Stocks are up, but the U.S. dollar is down against many other currencies. Does it feel like the dollar does all of the work but gets none of the credit? This week we look at the unbalanced relationship between U.S. equity markets and the dollar.

All That Glitters

Silver once ruled the world of markets. Now it can rally by 25%, and no one seems to care. Well, we care! Silver remains one of the most compelling and elusive commodities for investors. This week we look at why it has rallied and what that tells us about investor sentiment in other markets.

Credit Checkup

Corporate bonds have rallied this year, but what that means for the economy is not so simple. We look at different interpretations of the credit rally and how it relates to moves in the equity markets. It’s nice to give credit where credit is due.

Return of the Mammoths

Several reports in the past month indicate that mortgage convexity hedgers are back. These reports bring up three important questions. First: what are mortgage convexity hedgers? Second: where did they go? Third: why do I care? At least two of these questions will be answered this week.

Who is the MVP of the Market (Most Valued Performer)?

This week we give you a recap of the major moves in macro markets so far this year. In order to make it more topical, we compare each of these markets to NBA playoff teams. We find that much of the teams’ performance can be explained by market beta.

Non-Essential Oil

Do market prices follow grand economic theories, or is it the other way around? This week we look at how long-term views on oil have been almost as volatile as futures in that commodity.

At Any Rate

This week we look at negative rates from a different perspective. Rather than evaluate their effectiveness as a policy tool or their economic impact, we try to answer one question: why would anyone buy a negative yielding bond?

Don’t Run from the Yield Curve

This week we revisit one of our favorite topics: the yield curve. We look at some of the differences between the current inversion and past cycles. We also note that the current shape of the yield curve resembles a well-known company’s logo.

Australia Avoids the Breaking Point

Australia has broken some of the “laws” of economics by avoiding recession for thirty years. Now the economy faces some challenges. Find out what they are and what it may mean for the future.