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Working Paper

Future Liquidity, Present Value: Measuring and Pricing Liquidity Risk

In 1991, John Y. Campbell showed how an asset’s return is related to new information about its future cash flows and discount rates. We extend Campbell’s return decomposition to show how it is also related to new information on future liquidity.

Working Paper

The August of Our Discontent

The summer of 2007 caused some turmoil in the world of quantitative investing, leading to questions about quant investing in general and specific questions about what happened in July and August. We've tried to answer some of those questions here.

Working Paper

Learning, Dispersion of Beliefs, and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Term Structure Model

In this paper, researchers explore the idea that knowing how much professionals disagree about how quickly the U.S. economy is emerging from a recession may produce actionable insight into the future performance of the bond market.

Working Paper

A Reduced Form CoCo Model With Deterministic Conversion Intensity

Some financial institutions issue contingent convertible bonds to cushion their capital reserves in times of crisis. This paper builds a contingent convertible bond model with a minimum of stochastic factors that can be calibrated to market prices of related securities.

Working Paper

Deleveraging Risk

Using various measures of short selling activity for a large sample of U.S. securities, we find evidence that deleveraging risk—the risk of losses due to a sudden and widespread reduction in stocks held by levered investors—affects equity returns.

Journal Article

Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management

We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly. If investors can find managers more easily, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient.

Working Paper

Embedded Leverage

Embedded leverage—the amount of market exposure per unit of committed capital—has become an important feature of financial instruments. We study embedded leverage in equity options, index options and ETFs, and how it affects the required returns.

Working Paper

Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility

This paper finds similarities in realized volatility patterns across assets and asset classes, based on a high-frequency dataset for more than 50 commodities, currencies, equity indices and fixed income instruments spanning more than two decades.

Working Paper

Measuring Systemic Risk

We present a simple model of systemic risk and show how each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured and priced—its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized, which increases in its leverage, volatility, correlation, and tail-dependence.