Macroeconomics

Inflation Outlook: the Macro, the Micro, the Transitory

Financial markets have had a relatively muted reaction to the recent bout of higher than expected inflation. We assess what might explain markets’ sanguine response. We explain why we believe there are factors suggesting a return to low inflation readings is unlikely in the near term, and what the investment implications might be of such a scenario.

White Paper

When Stock-Bond Diversification Fails

The events of 2020 to 2021 have increased uncertainty around the future path of inflation. We review how different inflationary outcomes can impact investor portfolios and evaluate what assets and strategies may enhance portfolio resilience to inflation.

White Paper

Fundamental Trends and Dislocated Markets: An Integrated Approach to Global Macro Investing

We explore the benefits of combining two approaches to Global Macro investing – one systematic and the other opportunistic – into a single integrated strategy.

White Paper

A Half Century of Macro Momentum

"Macro momentum has the potential to deliver strong positive returns with low correlation to traditional asset classes across macroeconomic and market environments. It may also provide diversification benefits in bear equity markets and rising yield environments. "

White Paper

Building a Better Deep Value Portfolio: Difficulties Mastered are Opportunities Won

Opportunistic contrarian investing is appealing to many investors, but challenging to implement. We think deep value is best approached by pairing discretionary expertise with a quantitative framework.

White Paper

Risk Without Reward: The Case for Strategic FX Hedging

In the wake of losses associated with the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar between 2014 and 2015, we look at the long-term case for strategic currency hedging.

Journal Article

Carry

An asset’s “carry” is its expected return assuming that market conditions, including its price, stay the same. We find that carry predicts returns both in the cross section and time series for a variety of different asset classes.

Journal Article

Value and Momentum Everywhere

We find consistent value and momentum return premia across eight diverse markets and asset classes, and a strong common factor structure among their returns.

Working Paper

Carry Trades and Currency Crashes

Is there a strong link between a currency carry strategy and crash risk? We find that investing in high-interest-rate currencies while borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies delivers negatively skewed returns.

Journal Article

Optimal Currency Hedging for International Equity Portfolios

We explore currency exposures in international equity portfolios by decomposing the optimal currency portfolio into a “hedge portfolio,” which minimizes equity volatility, and an “alpha seeking portfolio” based on the well-documented currency styles of value, momentum and carry.