Each year, we publish our Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes with a focus on medium-term expected returns, as well as additional analysis or other new material.
January 16, 2024
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.
Alternative Thinking
1Q 2023
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.
Alternative Thinking
Q1 2022
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include an analysis that attempts to reconcile ever-lower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns and suggests practical strategic steps to boost portfolio expected returns.
Alternative Thinking
Q1 2021
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also discuss what investors should expect from the stock-bond correlation in the coming decade.
Alternative Thinking
January 29, 2020
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, and introduce a method for quantifying the expected return on cash.
Alternative Thinking
February 4, 2019
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.
Alternative Thinking
February 2, 2018
We update our medium-term expected returns for major asset classes and explore the historical accuracy of yield-based return estimates.
Alternative Thinking
1Q 2017
We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets. Compared with historical averages of value metrics, we believe we are in a low expected return environment.
Alternative Thinking
1Q 2016
We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets, and investigate expected returns for credits and commodities.
Alternative Thinking
1Q 2015
We update our expected returns and review our framework for constructing estimates of long-term expected returns for major asset classes, among other things.
Alternative Thinking
1Q 2014
We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.
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