Asset Allocation

2024 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.

Alternative Thinking

2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include two special topics: one highlighting the case for emerging market equities, and the other assessing the impact of large interest rate rises on various risk premia.

Alternative Thinking

2022 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include an analysis that attempts to reconcile ever-lower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns and suggests practical strategic steps to boost portfolio expected returns.

Alternative Thinking

2021 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also discuss what investors should expect from the stock-bond correlation in the coming decade.

Alternative Thinking

2020 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, and introduce a method for quantifying the expected return on cash.

Alternative Thinking

2020 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes (Supplemental Estimates as of March 31, 2020)

This supplement provides a special update to our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. This update reflects the large changes in prices for many asset classes due to the impact of COVID-19 in Q1 2020.

Alternative Thinking

2019 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.

Alternative Thinking

Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our medium-term expected returns for major asset classes and explore the historical accuracy of yield-based return estimates.

Alternative Thinking

2017 Capital Market Assumptions For Major Asset Classes

We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets. Compared with historical averages of value metrics, we believe we are in a low expected return environment.

Alternative Thinking

2016 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our multi-year expected return assumptions for major stock and bond markets, and investigate expected returns for credits and commodities.

Alternative Thinking

2015 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our expected returns and review our framework for constructing estimates of long-term expected returns for major asset classes, among other things.