Value
We Are Not Just Value! Except, You Know, When We Are...
July 12, 2022
Our systematic stock selection process is far from just “value.” And yet from 2018-2020 for the bad and 2021-2022 for the good, our world has indeed been all about value. What gives? This post reviews our correlation to value, delving into a few periods when it became the dominant part of our process. We find that when value dominates, it has usually been in bubble periods of irrational losses for value (and in their more pleasant aftermaths).
Value
Are Value Stocks Cheap for a Fundamental Reason?
August 30, 2021
By far the most popular question we get from value skeptics is “are the fundamental prospects for value stocks unusually poor today, justifying their low valuations versus expensive stocks?” Well, we now have an answer that doesn’t require a four-hour time commitment nor a PhD.
Are Value Stocks Cheap for a Fundamental Reason?
August 25, 2021
The value spread remains unusually high, which has led investors to be concerned that value may be cheap for a reason. In this short presentation, our Portfolio Solutions Group (PSG) explains how we evaluate this spread and illustrates our view that the current high value spread is forecasting higher expected returns, and not low fundamental growth rates.
Fixed Income
What Drives Bond Yields?
July 26, 2021
In this overview of the various factors that influence government bond yields, we show that both in theory and in the data, non-monetary policy factors drive significant variation in yields, particularly at longer maturities. Despite the exceptionally low yield environments we have witnessed, fundamentals continue to drive bond markets.
Tax Aware
Improving Direct Indexing: 130/30 and 150/50 Strategies
July 6, 2021
In this post, we expand on our analysis which studies the tax benefits of a hypothetical tax-aware direct indexing strategy with 1% tracking error.
Tax Aware
“The Tax Benefits of Separating Alpha from Beta” Wins the 2020 Graham and Dodd Top Paper Award
May 5, 2021
In this paper, we tackle a different practical question: In a world dominated by tax-agnostic managers, how can investors design their tax-agnostic strategy allocations to improve the tax efficiency of their overall investment portfolios?
Macroeconomics
Fire and Ice: Confronting the Twin Perils of Inflation and Deflation
Q4 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic and the responses to it by governments, central banks and consumers have unleashed both disinflationary and inflationary forces, but we do not know which forces will win over the longer term. We explore the historical inflation sensitivities of a range of different investments and present the benefits of both risk-balanced asset allocations and dynamic directional strategies to prepare for uncertain times.
Value
A Gut Punch
December 22, 2020
Sure, the last nearly three years have hurt, but at least the explanation was straightforward. A core part of our process, value, suffered. So when value rebounds, we will too, right? Well, not necessarily. To be clear, if value makes a prolonged major recovery, we certainly believe we will as well, but over short periods that doesn’t have to happen. Unfortunately, this is what we have experienced since the end of October. Regardless, it does not change my view one drop that going forward multi-factor investing is a darn good bet in a world that needs some darn good bets.
Macroeconomics
It’s Not a Bound; It’s an Opinion
November 20, 2020
In the second paper of our “Bonds Today” series, we review the popular belief that bond yields are too close to zero to fall much further and then explain why we disagree.
Asset Allocation
Don’t Hate the Asset; Hate the Constraint
November 20, 2020
What role do bonds play in a portfolio today? We explain why it all depends on investors’ ability to own them in a capital efficient way.