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Perspective
A Gut Punch
December 22, 2020
Sure, the last nearly three years have hurt, but at least the explanation was straightforward. A core part of our process, value, suffered. So when value rebounds, we will too, right? Well, not necessarily. To be clear, if value makes a prolonged major recovery, we certainly believe we will as well, but over short periods that doesn’t have to happen. Unfortunately, this is what we have experienced since the end of October. Regardless, it does not change my view one drop that going forward multi-factor investing is a darn good bet in a world that needs some darn good bets.
Perspective
There Is No Size Effect: Daily Edition
September 18, 2020
We have written several pieces on the famous small-firm or size effect, the two most important being our study of the interaction of size and quality and a fairly comprehensive survey of all things size. This note focuses on daily instead of the longer-horizon data studied in these other papers and, while not changing the overall story, this leads to a powerful illustration of what’s going on in small stocks.
Journal Article
Value and Interest Rates: Are Rates to Blame for Value’s Torments?
May 22, 2020
Some have blamed the interest rate environment for value stocks’ underperformance of growth stocks from 2017 to early 2020, as well as the stretch of lackluster performance for some value factors since Global Financial Crisis. We find the performance of value is not easily assessed based on the interest rate environment, and that factor timing strategies based on interest rate-related signals are likely to perform poorly.
Perspective
Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead?
May 8, 2020
When value has underperformed for so long, it’s natural and proper that people wonder if it’s ever going to work again. To test the popular explanations for why value investing is “broken,” Cliff tweaks the value factor’s construction to remove the stocks that best fit these stories. He finds no “this time is different” explanation holds water, affirming our belief that the medium-term odds are rather dramatically on value’s side.
White Paper
Understanding a Tax-Aware Defensive Equity Long-Short Strategy
April 17, 2020
We describe a hypothetical Tax-Aware Defensive Equity Long-Short strategy, including its construction and pre-tax and after-tax performance. The strategy closely replicates the pre-tax performance of a similar hypothetical tax-agnostic strategy and has the potential to achieve a meaningful tax benefit for a taxable investor.
Journal Article
Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead?
March 14, 2020
Undoubtedly, many systematic approaches to value investing have suffered recently. However, we find the popular suggestion that value investing is dead to be premature. We find expectations of fundamental information have been and continue to be an important driver of security returns.
White Paper
Equity Term Structures without Dividend Strips Data
March 12, 2020
We use a large cross-section of equity returns to estimate a rich affine model of equity prices, dividends, returns and their dynamics.. The new term structure data generated by our model represent new empirical moments that can be used to guide and evaluate asset pricing models.
Journal Article
Fact and Fiction About Low-Risk Investing
February 17, 2020
Low-risk investing has received a lot of attention over the past decade. An intensive academic debate has spurred, and been spurred by, the growing market for low-risk strategies. This article presents five fact and dispels five fictions about low-risk investing.
Working Paper
Beyond Basis Basics: Leverage Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price
February 7, 2020
Bases are driven by intermediaries’ cost of capital and the amount of leverage demand for an asset. Focusing on leverage demand, we find bases negatively predict futures and spot market returns with the same sign in both global equities and currencies.
Chief Investment Quarterly
Late Cycle Syndrome
September 18, 2019
The concern that the economy is nearing the end of its expansion phase has important implications for investors. We take a look at the data on “late cycle” indicators to see what they really tell us.