Macroeconomics

Measuring Systemic Risk

Topics - Macroeconomics Market Risk and Efficiency

${ numberSection } ${ text }
Measuring Systemic Risk

Stern School of Business Working Paper

Financial regulations seek to limit each institution’s risk. Unless the external costs of systemic risk are internalized by each financial institution, institutions will have the incentive to take risks that are borne by all. An illustration of this is the current crisis in which financial institutions had levered up on similar large portfolios of securities and loans which faced little idiosyncratic risk, but large amounts of systematic risk.

In this paper, we argue that financial regulation should be focused on limiting systemic risk, that is, the risk of a crisis in the financial sector and its spillover to the economy at large. We present a simple model of systemic risk and show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES) — that is, its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized.

SES increases with an institution’s leverage and its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

AQR Capital Management, LLC, (“AQR”) provide links to third-party websites only as a convenience, and the inclusion of such links does not imply any endorsement, approval, investigation, verification or monitoring by us of any content or information contained within or accessible from the linked sites. If you choose to visit the linked sites, you do so at your own risk, and you will be subject to such sites' terms of use and privacy policies, over which AQR.com has no control. In no event will AQR be responsible for any information or content within the linked sites or your use of the linked sites.

 

The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of AQR Capital Management, LLC, its affiliates or its employees. This information is not intended to, and does not relate specifically to any investment strategy or product that AQR offers. It is being provided merely to provide a framework to assist in the implementation of an investor’s own analysis and an investor’s own view on the topic discussed herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein. Hypothetical performance results are presented for illustrative purposes only.

 

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss.

 

Certain publications may have been written prior to the author being an employee of AQR.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice, nor is it intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor.